HAND TO HEART COMBAT: Preview for Juan Manuel Marquez vs Michael Katsidis

By Jessica Sinyard

It is well known amongst British fight fans that this sport can regularly cost you your eight hours a night. Late starts, early finishes, events and undercards broadcast from weird and wonderful time zones all over the globe; blink, and you’ve missed your weekend. But the clash of November 27^th between Mexican master Juan Manuel Marquez and the lionhearted warrior from downunder, Michael Katsidis, has already cost me more sleep than most. Remarkable for a fight that has yet to take place.

Perhaps it’s the fact that such a clash is so anticipated; perhaps it’s the fact that competitive fights between legends and fresher faces are so tough to call. More likely than either of these, on a personal level, is the fact that both fighters have contributed a great deal to my love of the sweet science itself. For myself and many others, the two of them together embody much of what the sweet science has to offer: the cerebral technician with impeccable timing and speed, and the relentless slugger, bursting with aggression, pressure, and insurmountable heart. It is my dream fight that could become a nightmare for either man, and I consider it a battle of superior hands versus proven heart.

Living legend Juan Manuel Marquez (51-1-5, 37KOs) is one of the most revered, feared, and  respected ring technicians of his generation; a three-division world champion and masterful counterpuncher, whose accuracy and ability to analyse his opponents in the ring are the stuff of which his rivals’ nightmares are made. His few losses to date have included exceptional fighters (notably phenomenons Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao,) but Marquez’s record boasts equally impressive wins, including against Joel Casamayor, Juan ‘Baby Bull’ Diaz (on two occasions), and a fiercely fought 12 round decision over fellow Mexican hero Marco Antonio Barrera.

Michael Katsidis (27-2, 22KOs) is widely considered as having one of the biggest hearts in boxing. His relentless aggression, pressure fighting style, and willingness to take punishment in order to give it, have earned him comparisons to the late and great Arturro Gatti. Currently on an impressive four-bout winning streak that saw a sizzler against Vicente Escobedo, a stoppage of battle worn Jesus Chavez, and a three-round annihilation of Britain’s undefeated (if untested) Kevin Mitchell, Katsidis arrives conditioned and intensely motivated for every fight. His decision to continue with the Marquez match-up following the sudden passing of his brother Stathi only bolstered his reputation as a driven professional.

The majority of fans will recognise that two of the names given above (Diaz and Casamayor) are opponents that Marquez and Katsidis have in common – Katsidis having lost to both. While this should make a prediction significantly simpler, I feel it is possible to overemphasize the significance. Even Marquez himself, when asked in a recent interview if he felt ‘more comfortable’ about the fight knowing that Katsidis had lost to two opponents that he [Marquez] had knocked out, the champion responded through a translator, ‘No, I’m not thinking of that… All fights are different.’ Clearly then, even if pundits and prognosticators are considering the fight a foregone conclusion, the man holding all the cards is not. Marquez has speed and resistance but is naturally small at lightweight. Diaz was able to land a number of effective shots against Marquez in their rematch especially, and Katsidis arguably has more legitimate power than Diaz. Against Casamayor also, (a skilled counterpuncher similar in age at the time to Marquez,) Katsidis overcame early difficulties and was starting to have more success, before losing patience in the 10^th round and walking onto the Cuban’s huge left hand. Two years down the line with four hard-fought wins is potentially quite a learning curve, and lack of patience or caution is the type of mistake that time and experience can correct. Although I feel that Katsidis’ lack of caution is one of his defining characteristics rather than a ‘mistake’ as such, with his heart, power, and ability to cut off a ring, he is not to be underestimated in his current form, lest we have a repeat of Hatton-Tszyu. Few fans will need reminding of 2005’s sensational upset that saw Ricky Hatton’s relentless bullying style triumph over Kostya Tszyu’s age and experience in the 11^th round.

Although a win for Marquez over a tough, gritty opponent would continue to galvanise his legacy, it is clear that Katsidis is the fighter who would benefit most from the win. This is the fight that could make his name, and regardless of the outcome, in many ways I think it will. Not only would a convincing performance against a legitimate great increase his chances of securing top competition in the future, but Katsidis’ heart, crowd pleasing style, and unassuming demeanour outside the ropes seems to broaden his fan base with every fight he takes, (with the possible exception of the Diaz split decision in Houston, and a particularly hostile crowd who booed Katsidis even after he wished Diaz the best and called him a worthy champion.) Both Marquez and Katsidis’ humility and professionalism are a credit to the sport and have made the lead up to this fight particularly palatable, especially given the tendency of clashes at heavier divisions to be oversold. (I didn’t say Haye and Harrison. You did.) Marquez is dazzling even at this age and Katsidis is an honest, worthy opponent. The fans have a treat in store, and for anyone restless about the result, the time of peace is near at hand. But as ever the old adage is true: if you want peace, you must prepare for war.

PREDICTION AND ANALYSIS

In memory of his brother’s passing, expect Katsidis to give the fight of his life – piling on the pressure and capitalizing on Marquez’s slowness in the earlier rounds. He has been vulnerable to early knockdowns in the past and Katsidis will waste no time testing his resistance. But the longer the fight goes on, the more dangerous Marquez becomes. Despite his advancing age and evidence of fractionally slowing down, Marquez’s fundamental skill and ring intelligence are a formidable combination. There is a point at which Marquez’s age could begin to show and I anticipate moments of difficulty for both fighters. But having survived an early round assault, I expect Marquez to adapt by the mid rounds. His accuracy, handspeed, and uppercuts are an arsenal that I believe was built to dismantle a come-forward slugger style. I have no doubt that Katsidis has the desire and stamina to go for 12 rounds; what I doubt is that the referee has the stomach for it. Given his willingness to take shots in order to land his own, Katsidis has fragile, battle-worn features that Marquez’s counterpunches are likely to open up. I feel that a high guard and good speed are qualities necessary to beat Marquez, and as a devoted fan of Katsidis or not, I would not associate either quality with him as a fighter. A potential fight of the year. Marquez to stop him in the 10^th.

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Tags: juan manuel marquez, michael katsidis